1.12.2009

This Week in Review

"HAVE THE NERVE TO GO INTO UNEXPLORED TERRITORY." Alan Alda. Taking those words to heart, Bonds and home loan rates did exactly that last week, reaching historic levels.
A few important news items from last week... First, the results are in on the Fed's first run at purchasing Mortgage Backed Securities under their new $500 Billion buying program. Over the last week, the Fed bought $10.2 Billion of Mortgage Backed Securities. Any time there is increased buying demand - for anything - prices will move higher. When Bond prices move higher, home loan rates improve.

Next, Stocks faced selling pressure last week due to a rash of earnings warnings from the nation's retailers, including Macy's, who announced they are closing eleven stores. Because money coming out of Stocks is often parked over into the Bond market, Bonds and home loan rates responded by reaching never-before-seen levels.

Finally, the job market reached a level not seen since 1945. The Labor Department reported on Friday that there were 524,000 jobs lost during the month of December.

All told, there were 2,600,000 jobs lost in 2008, which represents the biggest job loss in any calendar year since 1945, when 2,750,000 jobs were lost as the wartime economy was demobilized. But we must consider that there are a lot more people in the US today. Adding further sting to the report was the Unemployment Rate, which shot up higher than expectations to 7.2%, the highest reading in 16 years.

As we know...Bonds and home loan rates typically improve on negative economic news, since money will flow out of Stocks and into Bonds when bad news hits the wires. But keep in mind, these are volatile times - and it's hard to know how long the good times will last for home loan rates. Regardless of if you see a move or a refinance in your future, let's review your situation to determine if any decisions need to be made at this time.

How Ready Are You for 2009?


Now that the holidays are over and a new year has begun, now is the perfect time to make sure you are ready for 2009. Here are five things you should do this month that will make your life easier in the months ahead:

1. Clean Out the Clutter: You keep saying you'll do it...go ahead and do it. Spend an hour going through your old files, and shred those receipts, bills, and statements you no longer need, like old ATM receipts and utility bills, paystubs more than a year old, and receipts for things that are not deductible.


2. Get Organized: While you're at it, create new files for your 2009 tax-related papers and receipts. Examples of categories include medical expenses, gift and charitable donations, and home improvements.


3. Check the Gift Card Fine Print: If you received gift cards as a present over the holidays, use them soon. Some have expiration dates, or the amount on the card may get reduced over time. In addition, in the current economy, retailers that go out of business may not honor gift cards.


4. Do Some Review: Review your various insurance policies - life, home, auto, etc - to make sure the coverage you have is still the best fit for your needs and situation. To save on cash out of pocket, you might even consider raising your deductible to get a lower premium.

5. Do Some Reflection: Take an honest look at your schedule and responsibilities and make sure you are taking the time you need to stay healthy and feel good. Don't feel bad about actually scheduling specific blocks of time to exercise or spend special time with family and friends, to ensure it actually happens. This will make everything else you have to do this year easier...and more enjoyable, too!

1.05.2009

Weekly Review

Last Week in Review


"AN OPTIMIST STAYS UP UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO SEE THE NEW YEAR IN. A PESSIMIST STAYS UP TO MAKE SURE THE OLD YEAR LEAVES." Bill Vaughan. 2008 turned out to be a historic year on many counts, and optimists and pessimists alike were glad to close the books and say goodbye to the old year. In observance of the New Year's holiday, the Bond market closed early last Wednesday and was closed all day Thursday, but there was still plenty of time for volatility due to several noteworthy news items. With a great deal of midweek activity, Bond pricing ended the week slightly worse with home loan rates about .125% higher than where they began.
Early last week, a renewal of military conflict between Hamas in Palestinian Gaza and Israel sent crude oil jumping higher on concerns of supply disruption, causing volatile activity in both Stocks and Bonds. The strife in the region continues, and may cause more movement in the financial markets over the coming weeks.
GMAC received a $6 Billion lifeline from the Treasury to help stave off a bankruptcy protection filing or complete shutdown. This would have spelled big trouble for GM, as GMAC helps to finance purchases of most GM vehicles. This assistance is part of a larger effort to help aid the troubled auto industry, and GMAC announced that they will immediately resume financing to a wider range of car buyers. Stocks moved higher on the good news, which pulled a bit of money out of Bonds and caused home loan rates to rise.
NOTE: Stocks have made some nice moves higher of late, breaking above a key line in the sand at their own 50-day Moving Average. And with a great deal of cash on the sidelines waiting to be put back to work, as well as retirement money getting ready to be invested before tax time, this could spell better days ahead for Stocks. While money flowing into Stocks can sometimes pull money from Bonds and cause home loan rates to rise, the Fed has said they will be doing some buying of Mortgage Bonds, which could help home loan rates weather the storm much better than they have in the past.
In economic report news, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index - which measures manufacturing activity - came in at 34.1, very close to estimates of 33.0. But Consumer Confidence somewhat unsurprisingly missed advance expectations of 45.5, arriving at a dismal, record low of 38.0. Just by way of perspective, last year at this time, Consumer Confidence was at 88.6...so there's been quite a decline during 2008.
Also adding to the movement in the markets last week, the Securities and Exchange Commission recommended against suspending FASB 157, otherwise known as fair-value accounting rules or "mark to market". These rules led to the failure of many financial institutions that really weren't in bad shape, but simply made them appear to be overleveraged as they were forced to value their assets against distressed institutions selling at steep discounts. This announcement was not a surprise, as it wasn't expected that they would completely eliminate the rule and go back to the days of Enron-style accounting and valuation systems which lacked transparency. For now, the SEC is instead suggesting "improvements" to deal with illiquid markets and reducing the number of models used to measure impaired assets...but the details of those "improvements" are yet unknown.
Rest assured that as 2009 kicks into full gear, I will be watching closely and keeping you updated as to all the latest financial news stories, market action, and home loan rate developments. Because windows of opportunity can be fleeting, please call me to look over your own financial situation so that we are ready to act on your behalf.

Forecast for the Week


As the first full trading week in the New Year begins, more important news is coming as we look forward to Friday's Jobs Report, which will show the number of jobs lost or gained in December. Remember that the Department of Labor averages their numbers, and part of each month's report includes "revisions" to the several prior months' numbers.
The employment news last month was record-breaking: 533,000 jobs were lost during the month of November, which represented the most job losses the US has seen in 35 years. Additionally, November was only the fourth time in 58 years that our economy lost over 500,000 jobs. And adding more pain to last month's Report were heavy downward revisions for September and October, which erased an additional 199,000 jobs.
I'll be watching closely to see how Bonds and home loan rates respond to the Report...and all the other news this coming week is sure to have in store! Again, I encourage you to get in touch with me to review your own home loan scenario. We can determine together if it makes sense to consider acting on the low home loan rates currently available.

1.02.2009

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