The Fed is Talking, but Will They Act?

This was a good article sent to me from Christina Daniels at Olympic Lending. Good stuff! Check it out!

If the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate too soon, it could slow economic activity and cause a "double dip" recession. However, if the Fed waits too long to raise the Fed Funds Rate, inflation could result...and inflation concerns were a big reason for all the Fed chatter last week. Remember, inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates.

With mounting debt in the US and concerns that US debt will overtake GDP by 2012 - as well as the problems in Europe - there are many factors the Fed needs to consider before taking action. For instance, last week Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the Unemployment Rate is likely to remain high for a while and he noted that the Fed "can't wait until unemployment is where we'd like it to be" before tightening credit, or inflation could too easily get out of control. That said, recent reports like May's Jobs Report and Retail Sales Report - which showed the first monthly decline since September 2009 - indicate that our economic recovery is still fragile at the moment. This means the Fed won't want to act too quickly, either.

The next Fed Meeting is June 22-23rd, and while the Fed will most likely not raise the Fed Funds Rate at this time, more and more Fed members are expressing concerns about the current very accommodative monetary policy in place. Although home loan rates are not tied to the Fed Funds Rate, I'll be watching this situation very carefully as it continues to unfold.
In addition, Bonds and home loan rates have benefitted lately from the situation in Europe, as global investors have sought the safe haven of our US Bonds. However, as the Euro's freefall is finally showing some signs of stabilization, traders and investors can be very fickle in unwinding or reversing these trades pretty quickly. This could reverse the improvement we've seen in home loan rates, and we saw a sign of that last week. Bonds and home loan rates ended the week a bit off their best levels of the week...but are still incredibly low overall.